Updated January 6, 2026 at 1:36 PM EST
PLAYA GIRÓN, Cuba — In the small town of Playa Girón, history looms large. There isn't much here. The water is turquoise. The homes are low-slung. But in 1961, at the mouth of the Bay of Pigs, this was the site of a failed, U.S.-backed invasion aimed at toppling a young Fidel Castro.
Inside the Girón Museum, director Dulce María Limonta del Pozo gestures toward tanks and artillery used by Cuban forces to repel the assault.
"The plan," she says, "was to establish a beachhead and form a transitional government."
With his attack on Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and claiming to take control of the South American country, President Trump has brought an almost 200-year-old political idea back into the spotlight. The Monroe Doctrine is the belief that the Western Hemisphere falls within the United States' exclusive sphere of influence.
"It showed the people we should not fear an empire"
Few countries understand the consequences of that doctrine more intimately than Cuba. And after Washington's dramatic intervention in Venezuela, the island is once again in the U.S. crosshairs.
To Limonta del Pozo, the attempted invasion in Cuba in 1961 marks a pivotal moment for the Monroe Doctrine because the invasion failed spectacularly. While historians might argue over the details, Cuba bills it as the first time the United States was defeated militarily in the Americas.
"It showed the people that we should not fear an empire," Limonta del Pozo says.
That lesson still shapes how Cuba views Washington.
The Cuban government, led by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, sees American expansionism as embedded in U.S. history — beginning shortly after independence with the Louisiana Purchase in 1803, when the United States began systematically pushing European powers out of the hemisphere.
"Expansionism is in their veins. We are talking about historical ideas and strategies designed more than 200 years ago," says Alejandro García del Toro, who handles Cuba's bilateral relations with the U.S. government. "So, you cannot be surprised."
Trump revives Monroe Doctrine
President Trump has openly revived those ambitions. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, en route to Washington, D.C., Trump predicted that Cuba's communist government could soon collapse.
"Cuba looks like it's ready to fall," he said, noting the island's reliance on Venezuela's subsidized oil. But he dismissed the idea that U.S. troops would intervene directly. "I don't think we need any action. It looks like it's going down."
It's a sentiment frequently echoed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The son of Cuban immigrants and a longtime Cuba hawk, Rubio offered a warning for Havana over the weekend.
"If I lived in Havana, and I was in the government, I'd be concerned — at least a little bit," he said during a news conference.
Venezuela and Cuba have long been close allies: Venezuela has supplied Cuba with subsidized oil for decades, and in return Cuba has provided medical workers and security personnel.
Following the U.S. operation to capture Maduro, the Cuban government said 32 of its nationals — members of its armed forces and intelligence agencies — were killed while protecting Maduro and his wife, prompting two days of national mourning on the island.
Raúl Rodríguez, a researcher at the Center for Hemispheric and U.S. Studies, points to Trump's past calls to retake control of the Panama Canal and to annex Greenland — both long-standing U.S. strategic interests.
"It's a kind of imperial nostalgia," Rodríguez says.
From that perspective, the Caribbean was the next frontier once the U.S. expanded west to California. And while removing Venezuela's Maduro may align with U.S. goals, Rodríguez argues the deeper target could be Cuba — a country that has resisted American intervention since 1959.
"They've tried everything with Cuba," he says.
The hope in Washington now, Rodríguez believes, is that Venezuela's collapse will cut off the cheap oil Cuba has relied on for decades, deepening an already severe economic crisis and triggering unrest that could topple the government.
"For Mr. Rubio," Rodríguez says, "it would be his coronation and I would argue that this is his ultimate goal."
"Right now, we are fighting for our lives"
On the streets of Playa Girón, those pressures are already being felt. Fabiana Hernández Ortega waits for a truck delivering milk — a basic staple that has become increasingly scarce. Her father was detained by invading forces during the Bay of Pigs. She was only a year old when the invasion happened, but she grew up knowing people who fought.
"As Cuban citizens, we feel that moment as a victory," Hernández says. But today, she says, they are facing a different struggle.
Because of U.S. sanctions and economic mismanagement, the government is often forced to choose between keeping the lights on and importing food or medicine.
Hernández says she can no longer reliably find the medicine she needs. The subsidized milk, flour and sugar once provided by the government have grown scarce.
"Right now, we are fighting for our lives," Hernández says. "We live day to day."
Still, she shrugs — a gesture common across the island. "These are the cards we were dealt, so, we keep going. What else can we do?"
As she speaks, the milk truck finally arrives and, for a moment at least, there is relief.
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