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UK political scientist weighs in on race to replace U.S. Rep. Andy Barr

UK Political Science Professor Steve Voss
University of Kentucky
UK associate political science professor Stephen Voss says while the 6th Congressional District leans Republican, the Democratic nominee will have a few advantages next year.

The race to replace 6th District Republican Congressman Andy Barr has begun after Barr’s announcement that he’ll seek the Senate seat held by Mitch McConnell, who’s not running for reelection. Stephen Voss is an associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, specializing in American politics. He said past voting behavior gives the advantage to the Republican nominee.

“On average, you would guess that the Republican would win by 11 percentage points prior to redistricting. After redistricting, it took it to 13. So it's definitely a Republican-tilted district.”

Minutes after Barr’s announcement, Republican state Representative Ryan Dotson said he’ll run for Barr’s seat. Fellow Republican state Senator Amanda Mays Bledsoe told WEKU she’s absolutely considering it. Voss said while the district leans Republican, the Democratic nominee will have some advantages next year.

“The loss of the incumbency advantage with Barr leaving. The fact that Donald Trump will be two years into a unified Republican government, the fact that Democrats in this area have been especially mobilized and especially motivated.”

WEKU reached out to several Democrats who insiders say could be strong candidates, but none confirmed plans to run.

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John McGary is a Lexington native and Navy veteran with three decades of radio, television and newspaper experience.
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