Kentuckians who get health insurance through the state’s Kynect marketplace are going to see higher out-of-pocket costs for health insurance in 2026.
Health insurance companies are raising premiums while a more generous federal tax credit expires. Higher costs and less aid means Kentuckians will be left to pay the difference.
With varying premium costs and a tax credit that’s applied on a sliding scale, it’s hard to say exactly how much the changes will cost families. Kentucky Public Radio analyzed publicly available data from the state’s health insurance marketplace to better understand the impacts on Kentuckians’ budgets.
Kentucky Public Radio wrote a computer program to gather and analyze insurance quotes for five very different hypothetical families. Across every county, we compared their premium estimates for what the federal government considers to be a “benchmark” health plan in 2025 and 2026, along with the amount of federal aid they would be eligible for.
We found their out-of-pocket costs increased anywhere from about 60% to more than 600%. In real dollars, that means hundreds — or in the case of an older couple making $85,000 — thousands of dollars a month more for health care.
We ran our analysis by the progressive group Kentucky Center for Economic Policy and Kentucky Voices for Health — two organizations that have been closely following the rising costs of health insurance premiums on Kynect. Both said, anecdotally, this seems to match what they’re hearing from Kentuckians.
U.S. House Rep. Morgan McGarvey’s office also echoed that.
McGarvey said his office has been getting from people starting to take a peek at their 2026 health insurance costs.
“We have people flooding our office with calls, and I’m calling some of them back because the stories are heartbreaking,” he said. “You’re on the phone with people who are in tears.”
McGarvey represents Louisville and is Kentucky’s only Democrat in D.C. For Democrats, reinstating federal assistance for health insurance is a must-have in any deals to re-open the federal government.
He argues, if Republicans can afford to cut taxes for wealthy Americans, they can afford to fund federal assistance for health care. He says his biggest worry is that people will decide to skip health insurance, which is not only risky for them, but will trigger consequences for everyone.
“So you're going to have hospitals closing,” McGarvey said. “You're going to have medical staff leaving. You're gonna have fewer people on health insurance, and you're gonna have emergency rooms even more crowded than they are now. This is a disaster waiting to happen.”
None of Kentucky’s Republican congressional delegates accepted an interview with Kentucky Public Radio about our findings.
However, KPR did reach Dean Clancy, a policy expert with the conservative think tank Americans for Prosperity. In September, the group wrote to Congress urging lawmakers to let the enhanced benefits expire without caving to “unserious and ridiculous demands” from Democrats.
“They're costing taxpayers $35 billion a year - with a 'B' - without providing lower costs or higher quality…instead, let's fix health care to bring health care costs down for American consumers,” Clancy said.
Clancy’s group is focused on the system, but he says he’s not without sympathy for Kentuckians with sticker shock, and urged people to consider things like Health Savings Accounts. KPR showed him estimates for a low-income 22-year-old female who would have to go from paying about $15 a month to about $100 a month for the same level health plan.
“I'm sure that that increase will be a burden and unwelcome…But, you know, maybe, just like the rest of us, she should, you know, manage her budget as best she can,” Clancy said.
With open enrollment opening on Nov. 1, many Kentuckians will be seeing these higher costs for the first time. Some will be getting that news from Kynectors — people trained to help others navigate Kynect — like Arnisha Williams.
“I’m scared of what people’s reactions are going to be,” Williams said. “If I can be honest, [they’ll probably be] upset. Extremely upset. Which, I can’t blame them…it’s going to be hard on them.”
While Kentuckians settle into this new, more expensive reality, Congress appears far from a solution.
Democrats say health care costs need to be addressed before they vote to reopen the government while Republicans say they won’t negotiate on health subsidies until the government reopens.
Meanwhile, there’s collateral damage to the debate causing a shutdown: Federal funding for food assistance is set to run out on November 1 — the same day open enrollment begins.
This story was produced by the Appalachia + Mid-South Newsroom, a collaboration between West Virginia Public Broadcasting, WPLN and WUOT in Tennessee, LPM, WEKU, WKMS and WKU Public Radio in Kentucky and NPR.
