Few believed Democrats had a good chance of flipping central Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District at this point last year, as President Donald Trump had won these counties by 15 percentage points in the 2024 election.
But that’s exactly what Democrat Zach Dembo accomplished Tuesday — and it was not even close.
Dembo beat Republican Ralph Alvarado by nearly 10 percentage points, managing to dramatically improve on former Vice President Kamala Harris’ performance not just in the Democratic urban stronghold of Lexington, but every rural or suburban county surrounding it.
Democrats’ margin improved by at least 19 percentage points in every county compared to 2024. Dembo’s overperformance was even larger in the rural counties that ultimately broke for Alvarado than in the two counties he carried.
Dembo overperformed by more than 33 percentage points in rural Bath and Nicholas counties, but by less than 20 points in Fayette and Woodford counties, which he won.
This trend was far from unique to Kentucky, as Trump’s tanking popularity and rising consumer prices put wind behind Democrats’ sails nationwide. A New York Times analysis found that in the 35 U.S. Senate elections this week, Democratic candidates outperformed compared to 2024 in 100% of counties in those states — including Charles Booker in Kentucky.
Dembo’s collective 24.4 point swing was more dramatic than that of Booker for several reasons, at least in part due to his ability to compete with Alvarado in ad spending. His campaign, Democrat committees and aligned super PACs combined to spend roughly half of the $20 million of ads spent in the race — allowing him to deliver his message.
A look at the map showing the shift in raw vote margin towards Dembo highlights not just the significance of Fayette — which makes up 43% of voters in the district — but two neighboring counties that have been among the fastest growing in the state over the past decade.
In Madison County to the south of Lexington, Trump beat Harris by a 14,000-voter margin in 2024, nearly doubling her total. While Dembo did not win Madison, he came just four percentage points shy, cutting his margin of defeat to just more than 1,000 votes.
A similar trend was to the north in Scott County, which has grown in population with the expanding Toyota plant in Georgetown. Trump won it by 28 percentage points and more than 8,000 votes, but Dembo completely flipped the script by nearly winning Scott County outright, trailing Alvarado by less than 100 votes.
A review of precinct results in the congressional districts also shows Dembo outright winning larger cities in the counties outside Lexington, while avoiding blowouts in their more rural precincts there.
Dembo won clear victories in Georgetown precincts, as well as Richmond and Berea in Madison County. He also won Nicholasville in Jessamine County and Winchester in Clark County — where Alvarado lives.
Even in the less populated and more rural counties where Dembo was blown out — like Garrard, Fleming and Estill counties — he still dramatically overperformed from 2024, ensuring that Alvarado could not make up enough ground to compete.
Political strategists point to disaffection with Trump
Even among political observers who thought Dembo would win, the large margin by which he won was a shock.
Republican campaign strategist Tres Watson was expecting a much narrower loss for Alvarado, but says his poor results showed what he had feared leading up to Election Day — that disaffected Republican voters across the state and country would not turn out to vote.
“Some of them were MAGA voters who just don't vote if Trump's not on the ballot, and then you had more moderate centrist voters who were mad at Trump,” Watson said. “I'm betting that is not a unique issue to the Sixth District.”
With that environment and the Trump-induced backlash, Watson said there was little Alvarado could have done to change his fate — an opinion shared by Democratic campaign consultant Jared Smith.
“I don't think there's anything Alvarado could have done,” Smith said. “I mean, that was just the chickens came home to roost is what happened on MAGA.”
Smith added that Dembo was able to win so convincingly due to his ability to compete in fundraising and running “a mistake-free campaign,” but Trump’s plummeting approval was too much to overcome.
“The atmosphere is so toxic for Republicans that a lot of them stayed home in silent protest,” Smith said.
Morgan Eaves, the executive director of the Kentucky Democratic Party, said Dembo’s success was largely due to him being a great first-time candidate with a strong resume, proving himself in a competitive Democratic primary before flipping the seat this week.
Working in his favor beyond just antipathy to Trump and the gloomy economy was a little luck, as Eaves said that Dembo’s work to tie Alvarado to his 2019 running mate — former Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin — was made easier by headlines.
“It didn't hurt either that we had a good foil on the other side, particularly with Matt Bevin getting arrested,” Eaves said. “That provided a great opportunity to really compare and contrast the two sides.”
Eaves, a native of Madison County, said it is not surprising that Dembo’s overperformed even more in the counties just outside of Lexington.
“What's happening with inflation, what tariffs have done to small business profits, and then increasing prices on just about everything, people feel that harder in places where there isn't as much economic opportunity,” Eaves said. “So that message really resonates even more.”
Eaves said the Madison County results are especially notable, as it used to be a reliably Democratic county when it was represented by former Congressman Ben Chandler, but now has only one Democratic elected official in its county government — the coroner. She said Tuesday is a sign that Madison and other similar counties in Kentucky may be swinging back to the party.
“(Madison is) a bit of a bellwether in that district and I think really representative of the change that we're seeing for Democrats across the state,” Eaves said.
