A Prestonsburg lawyer hopes to unseat veteran Republican U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers next week, though one expert says the climate of Kentucky’s 5th Congressional District isn’t a level playing field.
Rogers has served the 5th District, which includes much of Eastern Kentucky, in the U.S. House of Representatives since 1981. Eight of his 24 general elections were won uncontested, and Democrats last fielded a candidate in 2022.
Ned Pillersdorf, a Floyd County resident of 44 years, says the sharp and divisive shift in federal politics pushed him to enter the race, however.
“The point I decided to run was when I watched C-SPAN and saw that the Big Ugly Bill passed, and the Republicans were chanting ‘U-S-A, U-S-A,’” Pillersdorf said, referring to a massive piece of legislation signed by President Donald Trump in 2025, commonly called the One Big Beautiful Bill.
“I have been approached by people interested in me running, and I put them off, but when I saw that vote, I said ‘I'm going to run.’ That it's just unconscionable,” the Democrat told WEKU in an interview this month.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act cut some taxes, increased spending on the border, defense and energy production, raised the national debt ceiling and made access to social programs, including Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program more difficult. Rogers joined many House Republicans in voting for the bill.
Pillersdorf said the “devastating” legislation will severely hurt Kentucky’s 5th District, a region with a declining population, many low-income residents and an economy built on now-toppled coal fortunes.
About 42% of residents in the district are enrolled in Medicaid, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation, and 23% of households there used SNAP to put food on the table in 2024, federal data shows.
“If Rogers had done the right thing and protected our district, I would not have run,” Pillersdorf said.
Rogers did not respond to multiple requests for an interview on the race or issues in Kentucky’s 5th District ahead of the election Tuesday, Nov. 3.
In a May 2025 news release, Rogers called the bill a “comprehensive, responsible plan for the decade ahead and beyond.”
He pointed to tax cuts for middle- and working-class families, and investments in job creation and border security as reasons for his support. On Medicaid, he said the tightened restrictions help Eastern Kentuckians by removing undocumented immigrants and ineligible recipients from the program.
Just 6% of Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program enrollees are eligible noncitizen immigrants, KFF reports.
“We must get rid of the waste, fraud and abuse, and it is our duty to secure this program, as well as SNAP benefits, for the American people in greatest need,” Rogers said in the release.
Voter response to incumbency
Stephen Voss, political science professor and an expert on voter behavior at the University of Kentucky, said incumbents generally have the advantage on the ballot, but not necessarily due to voter loyalty.
“Part of the famed incumbency advantage comes from differences in what sorts of opponents incumbents face, differences in the willingness of people to to contribute to the campaign of an incumbent, rather than to an untried challenger,” Voss said, referring to the fundraising advantage many longtime politicians have.
According to filings with the Federal Election Commission, Pillersdorf has raised $377,088.72 as of Oct. 14 — that’s about a third of the $1,026,113.99 Rogers has raised.
In addition, clusters of voters in the same geographic region can make it hard for newcomer candidates to break in.
“If you're a Democrat, you're much more likely to live by other Democrats these days. If you're a Republican, you're more likely to live by other Republicans for reasons that have nothing to do with how the lines were drawn, but instead because of how politics has changed in different sorts of communities,” Voss said. “Or to put it another way, because people's cultural values and their community choices are more likely to overlap with their politics.”
Factors in the 5th District
Democrats make up more than 33% of the 545,394 registered voters in the 5th District. Republicans account for 58% of those voters, while less than 9% are registered to other parties.
These figures don’t tell the whole story, however. Voss said voters in Kentucky’s 5th have traditionally been Republican, even when the south and the peripheral south have been strongly Democratic.
“Large chunks of Appalachia had flirted with Democratic candidates, but Hal Rogers' district has been Republican, more or less, parts of it have been Republican since the Civil War,” Voss said.
Additionally, Voss pointed to Rogers’ record of securing federal funds for Appalachian Kentucky as a strong driver of loyalty there.
Republican Party of Kentucky communications director Adam Hope backed that idea in an emailed statement.
"Hal Roger’s delivers time and again for Eastern Kentucky. Whether it’s his stellar voting record on conservative principles or how he makes the federal government work for Eastern Kentucky — the voters know Hal delivers,” Hope wrote. “He has secured record funding on flood control, expanded water and wastewater in every single county he serves, cut overdose deaths rates in half, expanded access to healthcare and education in the mountains, spurred regional collaboration to bring economic development and jobs, and much more.”
Earlier this month at an annual summit, Rogers presented $25 million to help expand internet access and recently secured federal funds for septic repair and replacement in a region that has seen catastrophic flooding in recent years.
Pillersdorf doesn’t think that’s enough for voters to keep Rogers around, however. In addition to Rogers’ support of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Democrat questions the congressman’s age (Rogers is 88), competency and participation in the “radical Republican movement.”
“What bothers me is that they don’t give a damn about all my struggling neighbors,” Pillersdorf said of Rogers and other Republican politicians. “I do, that's why I'm running. I've had a poverty law practice here in Prestonsburg for 45 years, and it bothers me so much that we are ranked one of the poorest congressional districts in the country.”
Pillersdorf is 71, and said if he gets the job, he aims to serve three terms in Congress.
He describes himself as a rural Democrat who faces different issues — like quality water and internet access — than other Democrats across the state and country. He takes issue with Rogers showing up to give out big checks as a result of legislation he voted against, like former President Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill.
In an effort to be seen in his district, Pillersdorf said he’s made more than 200 appearances in nearly all of the 5th District’s 30-plus counties.
Despite the uphill climb, the Democrat points to individual contributions as a mark of the success of his campaign to unseat Rogers. Those dollars come from the voters themselves, he contends, rather than corporate or PAC giving.
“Most of them are very small, but the people who give me $10 and $25 or donate to my campaign,” Pillersdorf said. “They're going to vote, and they're going to tell their friends who to vote for.”
