The Trump administration has taken steps to boost coal’s fortunes in recent years, but the government still forecasts an industry decline this year and next.
Coal generation is expected to decline 8% in 2026 and another 6% in 2027. That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short Term Energy Outlook.
Seth Feaster, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, says the Trump administration’s efforts to bolster coal have fallen flat.
"It's showing that there is going to be a continued decline despite the administration's efforts to really give coal a leg up,” he said.
An Environmental Protection Agency official came to Louisville earlier this year to announce one of those measures, which rolled back a Biden-era pollution standard for power plants.
The administration has also canceled tax credits for wind and solar, rolled back power plant regulations and ordered coal facilities to stay on the grid longer than planned.
But Feaster says coal can’t compete despite the favorable policies.
“One, it's not competitive,” he said. “Two, there's a lot of other stuff being built right now, particularly solar, and still some wind, but solar all over the country.”
Wind, solar and gas are expected to meet the growing electricity demand the government forecasts this year and next year. Solar generation surpassed coal for the first time in May.
Kentucky lost more than 300 coal jobs in the first six months of the year, according to state data. Rail shipments of coal are also down.
Friday, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia Circuit dealt a setback to one of the Trump administration’s pro-coal policies.
The court overturned a 2025 U.S. Department of Energy order to force the J.H. Campbell coal plant in Michigan to continue operating beyond its scheduled retirement.
The Sierra Club has argued the order to keep Campbell and coal plants in other states in operation has cost electricity customers more than $500 million.
The Department of Energy has claimed Campbell and other coal generators needed to stay on the grid to prevent a power shortage.
Feaster said that operation and other coal plants in Indiana, Colorado, Florida and Washington have not generated much electricity since the Department of Energy ordered them to stay online.
According to the Sierra Club, the D.C. circuit court’s ruling only applies to the Campbell plant. Legal challenges are underway in other states.
That includes one by Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman challenging the Department of Energy’s order to keep a plant in Pennsylvania on a regional grid that includes Kentucky.
Coleman’s office and East Kentucky Power Cooperative have petitioned the Sixth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to overturn the cost-sharing plan for the Eddystone plant, which burns oil.
