Different parts of Kentucky need between seven and 12 inches of rain to get out of its current drought as the state heads into its warmer summer months.
Cliff Goff, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Louisville, said the factors that go into deciding if there’s a drought include how agriculture is doing, low stream flows, low soil moisture and lack of rainfall. The state has not seen enough since November.
The droughts in Kentucky range from “abnormally dry” to “extreme drought”. Data from the National Centers for Environmental Information shows that with normal weather in the state, eastern Kentucky needs more than nine inches of rain in the next month for drought to end.
North-central Kentucky needs more than seven inches of rain, and central Kentucky needs nearly 10 inches of rain. Western Kentucky, where most of the severe drought counties are, needs almost 12 inches of rain to get out of a drought. These levels are based on the assumption that Kentucky’s weather stays around normal temperature and precipitation.
Last year, the beginning of the year was one of Kentucky’s wettest January to April periods. April 2025 was the second wettest April on record.
“Typically, spring is a more active period, so the fact that we're in drought now is a little concerning, because our driest months are still to come,” Goff said. “Entering in the summer already in drought is definitely concerning.”
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data shows that Kentucky has had more than five inches less precipitation than normal so far this year. Even with more rain predicted in the coming days, Goff said that isn’t going to be enough to get the state out of a drought. The temperature could also contribute to keeping the state in a drought.
“The warmer it is, the sunnier it is,” Goff said, “the more evaporation that occurs, and that can also worsen drought conditions.”
People who are beginning to do more outside activities as it moves into summer need to watch out for burn bans, which are set county by county.
Burn bans can also be set for specific situations, such as a ban on backcountry fires that was recently lifted in the Daniel Boone National Forest. Historically, fire restrictions are considered during the spring and fall when the risk of fire activity is higher.
The ban started in mid-April and was limited to backcountry fires, which are fires not in a developed recreation area. That’s like making a fire somewhere along a hike. Fires at campsites and picnic grills were still allowed. Those are called frontcountry fires.
The ban was lifted on Friday. Mary O’Malley, public affairs specialist for the Daniel Boone National Forest, said factors such as the quantity of human-caused fires, fuel moisture conditions and potential threat to firefighters and public safety decide whether or not to have a fire ban.
“Since we've seen such significant green up – the vegetation, the leaves have leafed out – and we've had some increased precipitation, it may not be enough to bring us fully out of the drought, but it has reduced the likelihood and potential severity a wildfire starts,” O’Malley said.
Fire restriction information is posted on the Daniel Boone National Forest website and social media, as well as at trailheads and campgrounds.
Small things like leaves and twigs have benefitted the most from recent rain in the Daniel Boone Forest, O’Malley said. Those would be some of the first things to catch fire in drier weather. Larger fire fuels like logs and downed trees are going to need a lot more rainfall to become moist enough to resist fire.
“If you went out to a forest right now, it may not look on the surface like it's in a drought,” O’Malley said. “We've got lots of greenery. We've got lots of vegetation.”
O’Malley said people going into the Daniel Boone Forest should always be prepared for whatever conditions they’re facing, even as the fire season is ending.
“The fire danger is lower and decreasing as we move into that lush, green kind of period of the year,” O’Malley said. “Fire is always a dangerous thing, and it's always important to be responsible with fire.”
Being fire safe means making sure a fire is completely out. O’Mally said that means dousing the fire, stirring what remains, dousing the fire with water again and feeling it with the back of your hand from six to eight inches away. Relying on incoming rain is not enough to make sure a fire is out.
“If it still feels warm, it's too hot to leave,” O’Malley said. “That warmth on a dry, breezy day can be swept up into embers that could then hit some leaves or twigs nearby, and that's how we get our fires.”
