With less than two weeks before the election, polling shows a close race at the top of the ballot. Public polling may be considered an indication of what might transpire, but certainly not a given.
Don Dugi is a veteran political science professor at Transylvania University. He said pre-election polling can affect voting, but which way is hard to determine. And Dugi said polling results showing the presidential race as tight still have limitations.
“One of the problems when you say it’s neck and neck is, as I think the most recent polls have been suggesting, it ignores the possibility of a margin of error,” said Dugi.
And Dugi noted a plus or minus three percent can actually mean a swing of six percent. And the Transy professor added there are hidden errors that occur in polls; non-coverage, non-response, and measurement error. And Dugi says so-called late deciders can affect results.
Where Gallup and Roper were the polling organizations years ago, now there are many.
“What people forget is these originated for profit. And so, like other things that are business-driven, you’re gonna have a business mentality associated with it. So, a more is better kind of thing tends to happen as a consequence,” said Dugi.
The type of polling has changed over the years. Dugi said door-to-door transitioned to telephoning to online. And the Transy professor said there are issues with each. Dugi said today non-response to phone calls is likely and online polling is problematic because it skews demographics to more college-educated older voters.
Dugi said another issue lies in the fact that around 40% of eligible voters will likely not be casting a ballot. So, he said predicting who’s going to show up to vote is a problem.
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