Turnout for today’s primary elections in Kentucky is expected to be low, but the results could preview what’s to come in November. That’s according to Stephen Voss, a specialist in elections and voting behavior at the University of Kentucky. He said neither President Biden or former President Trump may receive the support a presumptive nominee would typically get in the primary – and November.
“Trump may have Kentucky sewed up, Biden may be doomed in Kentucky, but the turnout for those presidential candidates can filter down the ballot and affect the fate of state legislative candidates, for example.”
On the other hand, Voss said the expected low primary turnout means Kentuckians can’t read too much into the results. He said in some parts of the state, Kentucky voters’ behave like those in other, more competitive states – for instance, northern Kentucky looks a lot like the upper Midwest.
“When Kentucky swung rightward in the northern part of the state, that was the heart of the Tea Party, when also the Midwestern states that have joined it shifted Republican for the period from 2010 to 2016.”
Voss said Kentucky’s Appalachian counties vote the way West Virginia and parts of North Carolina and Tennessee do, while the western and southern areas often vote like the U.S. South.
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